Theory of games in economics and other areas of human activity

For a person who is not an expert inpolitics, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita from the University of New York makes surprisingly accurate predictions of political events. He managed to accurately predict the resignation of Hosni Mubarak and Pereverz Musharraf to several months. He accurately described the receiver of Ayatollah Khomeini as the leader of Iran five years before his death. When asked about the secret, he answers that he does not know the answer - he knows the game. Under the game here is meant the mathematical method, which was originally created for the formation and analysis of the strategies of various games, namely, game theory. In economics, it is used most often. Although initially it was designed to build and analyze strategies in games used for entertainment.

Game theory is a numerical device that allowsto calculate the scenario, or, more precisely, the probability of various scenarios of the behavior of the system or "game" controlled by various factors. These factors, in turn, are determined by a number of "players".

Game theory and economic behavior are very strongand organically intertwined. This is natural. This determines the range of problems solved by the theory of games in the economy. It helps to calculate the sequence of events based on the fact that participants will pursue their interests. Goals, motivation and the degree of influence of various players are the incoming parameters of practical problems, which solve the theory of games.

In the economy, players aremanufacturers, trading companies, banks and other organizations of all kinds. Based on these parameters, the computer model estimates the probability of different scenarios of each player's behavior, calculates their ability to influence the decisions of other players, and thus calculates the most anticipated sequence of events.

The theory of games in economics is an excellent toolforecasting. This method is particularly effective in modeling auctions. Bidding on trades is quantified, and the end result can often be predicted fairly accurately. Consulting agencies effectively use computer programs based on game theory to make auction transactions with maximum benefit to the client. For example, the tactics developed by Milgram for the companies Time Warner and Comcast to participate in the auction for the sale of broadcasting frequencies, was triumphant and saved these firms almost 1.2 million dollars.

Theory of games in the economy that allows for effectiveuse finance, in politics can resolve protracted conflicts and negotiations that have reached a dead end. The idea to use the computer as an independent negotiator in the situation when the process was at a dead end was put forward. Such programs, being an independent agent, can move the process from the deadlock, without violating the balance of interests of different parties. Similar programs are being actively developed and tested in the field of divorce proceedings.

Thus, the theory of games in the economy has receivedthe main impetus to development, can be applied in various fields of human activity. It is too early to say that these programs should be used to resolve military conflicts, but in the future this is quite realistic.

</ p>